Is Brand America toxic?

Donald Trump has created a full-blown crisis of faith in America, and trust in everything American is evaporating. The President’s tarnished reputation for broken business deals, disregard for the law and doubling-down no matter how wrong he is or stupid he looks — before fundamentally changing his mind — has corroded brand America. In a matter of a few second-term weeks brand America's reputation has become toxic around the world.

How did this happen and can it be rescued? How long will that take and at what cost? As brand strategists we took a look through our brand lens.

The metrics of brand toxicity

Every strong brand relies on a reputation for trust, consistency, and emotional resonance. The U.S.A. is now scoring poorly on all three, despite its core values, enshrined in the Constitution, of equality, individual liberty, limited government, democracy and the rule of law.

"A brand is a promise. When a country consistently breaks its promises — on trade, democracy, or stability — it becomes a liability." This is the view of Seth Godin, a Marketing Thought Leader, and it’s hard to disagree with.

Global opinion of Brand America wasn’t great before Trump arrived in office for his second term:

• A 2024 Pew Research study found only 31% of Europeans trusted U.S. leadership (down from 64% in 2016).
• Investors were losing confidence with massive Volatility Index (VIX) spikes around Trump’s trade threats and subsequent actions, signalling crisis-level market distrust even before he took office.
• Talent was draining away, with U.S. universities reporting declining international enrolments (ICEF Monitor, 2023), with students citing gun violence and political instability as deterrents. Again, this has accelerated following Trump’s attacks on higher education with many American academics also seeking exile abroad, according to the Financial Times.

Since Trump’s tariffs were announced, stock markets have crashed and whipsawed on his whims, wiping trillions of Dollars from investors’ portfolios, with treasury bonds also under pressure.  The U.S. Dollar is being undermined as the #1 safe haven currency, while other unintended consequences are lurking within the global financial system; some saying it's only a matter of time before some large hedge funds blow up. As I write, China has retaliated a second time with it’s own 84% tariffs on U.S. imports, Trump then raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, while pausing 'reciprocal tariffs' for 90-days on everyone else. The situation is comical, and Brand America has lost credibility.

The metrics of this self-inflicted brand vandalism will soon be available for all to see.

^{Video credit: @horrorartguy}

Personal brand trumps national brand

As we have written before, sometimes it only takes one man — and it usually is a man — to toxify a brand. Elon Musk did it with Twitter and Tesla, Gerald Ratner did it with his jewellery stores and now Trump has done it with a whole country.

In less than 90 days, he has rebranded America in his own image: combative, transactional, fickle, inconsistent, vengeful and unpredictable, relinquishing defence obligations, picking fights with neighbours and friends; and even proposing imperialist expansion over Greenland and the Panama Canal: In branding terms this means:

• Brand Contamination: His erratic behaviour, legal battles, casual untruths, inflammatory rhetoric and attacks on institutions and friends and foes alike now define the U.S.A. abroad.
• Erosion of Core Values: The U.S. was once synonymous with stability and democracy — now it’s associated with unpredictability, self-interest, belligerence, revenge, election denialism and partisan chaos.

To most of us, Trump’s ‘policies’ make no sense at all. They appears to be more “Baldrick” than “Cunning Plan” and it’s hard to find any serious economist other than Peter Navarro, (whom Musk calls “dumber than a bag of bricks”) who can see Trump’s declaration of economic war working out for anyone. His ‘smash and grab’ economic tactics are based on intimidation and bullying and have created distrust and massive uncertainty the world over.

A clip of Milton Friedman describing the many sources of materials needed to make a humble pencil has been doing the rounds on social media, and clearly demonstrates the flaws in Trump’s ‘plan’. US retail businesses could be crippled and US consumers ‘ripped-off’ by Trump’s belligerence. Most stock in US shopping malls is imported and with up to 125% tariffs applied from today, prices will rise dramatically for all sorts of goods, fuelling inflation. While the billionaires bros won’t notice the cost of their weekly shop, the millions on Main Street will.

If Brand America is toxic – who will benefit?

America isn’t just losing trust, it risks being replaced as the global leading economy and the most obvious beneficiary is its main adversary, China, who also happens to own $750 billion+ of US sovereign debt, a fact never talked about in Trump circles for fear they might dump it on the market (and maybe that's what happened on April 9th to make Trump u-turn). The simplistic answer to the massive deficit isn’t tariffs, it’s persuading Americans to stop being the world’s biggest spenders and become the world’s biggest savers. That sounds too boring for Mr Trump, so others are waiting in the wings to see how thay can benefit from America’s downfall:

Main competitors for global economic leadership and their brand characteristics:

Back in 2023 Ray Dalio founder of Bridgewater Associates said "The U.S. used to be the default choice for investors. Now, they’re asking ‘Do we really want that exposure?’”. Today, that question is being asked by many more asset managers, while consumers are starting to extend their boycott of Tesla to other American brands. 

Can brand America be saved?

Yes, but this will be a crisis-level rebrand and that won’t be cheap or fast (ask Volkswagen after dieselgate). The first three steps will need to be:

1. Acknowledge the toxicity — stop the denial and the hyperbole of “making America great again”. Return from “I win, you lose” to “win-win” solutions. Stop treating complex political situations like real-estate deals.
2. Overhaul the narrative — return to "freedom, innovation, stability" depoliticise courts and media, rebuild trust in institutions.
3. Invest in trust-building — rebuild influence through diplomacy, education, fair trade and soft power, including USAID.

Conclusion

Brand America isn’t dead yet — it has just repositioned with a proposition that alienates many of its audiences. What’s needed now is for Congress to play its part in moderating the madness until the 2027 mid-terms can turn Trump into a lame duck. That’s when the rebranding can start and a full brandtastrophy avoided.

• Lesson: Even the strongest brands can collapse when leadership misaligns with the brands core values.
• Opportunity: The next administration will face the toughest rebranding challenge in history.
   

Peter Matthews
Founder & CEO

David Gilbert
Head of Brand Consulting

If you have a brand challenge, we’re always happy to talk. Contact us for a chat at any time.